Early List: Joe Mixon is Overpriced

Be very picky when selecting your RB1. This is your workhorse. This is the meat and potatoes of your team. A mistake at the RB position could lose your entire season as early as your draft date. I favor studs, if you are paying prime time auction $’s, or using a crucial early first round pick, I want some juicy material. I’m going to analyze Joe Mixon and his average rating as I feel it’s far too high for how much risk is involved with taking Mixon as your RB1 as compared to other options.

Currently, Joe Mixon (CIN) has an average draft position of #12 overall or RB7 off the board, according to the “experts” at fantasypros. With an expert consensus rank of #10 (“experts” are even more bullish). This is far ahead of some heavy hitters: Nick Chubb (CLE) RB8, Aaron Jones (GB) RB11, Todd Gurley (ATL) RB16, Le’Veon Bell (NYJ) RB20, Melvin Gordon (DEN) RB19, David Johnson (HOU) RB21.

Expectations are high and the team has changed. Joe Burrow is coming in to take over from the Red Rocket Andy Dalton. Which is good news and sometimes REALLY good news if they decide to run the ball a lot to take some pressure off the rookie QB. However, Burrow is expected to be great. That’s the #1 overall draft pick. He’s going to be throwing the ball, a lot. Like last year, I predict the Bengals will be behind in many games. Forcing the offense to keep throwing and not the small consistent runs from the RB that we are looking for. In addition, Mixon was never really a pass catcher or involved in the offense in that manner anyway. He’s a bruiser back that needn’t be catching balls, much like an Adrian Peterson. Taking into account the changes at QB, and the disastrous 2019 season. I have a hard time buying into a rookie QB will be able to turn this shipwreck offense into a fantasy point printing machine. Rookie QB’s are notoriously difficult to judge before they have even stepped onto the field. Usually, even for the better ones, it takes some time to get comfortable. Many times, they don’t even make it that far.

Joe Mixon has a decent floor, he will get his touches (15ish a game), and he will get some touchdowns. He is the lead back after all. However, the current price is far too high for his ceiling, which is lower than his counterparts are. We haven’t seen Mixon explode like Nick Chubb or Le’Veon Bell has done in the past. If he does this season, it would be the first season where Mixon enters the elite category. When looking at Mixon as a potential RB1, I don’t like the team, I don’t like the offense, and I don’t like a rookie QB.

Better priced alternatives & Joe Mixon rating: 

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